一起发财|6月 15, 2026 13:02
Last week, economist Hong posted two long articles, starting to go bearish on tech. I read the original text and summarized it as follows:
1. The U.S. stock market and the economy are experiencing the largest historical divergence—a classic definition of a bubble.
2. The Fed's rate hikes could lead to a crash similar to the Nasdaq collapse in 2000.
3. Global liquidity indicators hit a turning point in May, typically leading asset prices by about 3 months. This means a major cyclical adjustment could happen in 2-3 months.
4. Compared NVIDIA to Cisco, arguing both rely on investments to create "fake demand." Low PE ratios in storage indicate a peak, not a bottom.
5. Chinese assets are undervalued, and both the total market cap and indices of A-shares will hit new highs.
I agree with about 30% of the points made.
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