The energy shock is not over yet, multiple investment banks warn that oil prices may return to above $90 in the third quarter According to BlockBeats, on June 15th, as the US Iran conflict released signals of easing, although the global energy market briefly stabilized, multiple investment banks and institutions warned that the subsequent impact of energy shocks has not yet ended, and geopolitical risk premiums may continue to exist for a long time. Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ Bank, stated that the resumption of passage in the Strait of Hormuz still faces real obstacles such as mine risks and ship delays, and it may take weeks or even months for shipping to fully recover to pre war levels. He pointed out that it is difficult for the crude oil market to quickly repair the gap until the supply chain is fully normalized. Westpac believes that during the strait blockade, global inventory consumption is significant, and the pressure to replenish inventory will further exacerbate market tension. Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, predicts that even if shipping returns to normal immediately, the global crude oil market may still have an inventory gap of about 800 million barrels by November this year, and points out that current oil prices are still insufficient to balance future supply and demand. He also predicted that there is a high probability that oil prices will rebound to the range above $90 in the third quarter, which may trigger a chain inflation effect. Willem Sels, Chief Investment Officer of HSBC Private Banking, stated that this round of energy shocks has had spillover effects on weak links in the global economy, especially in regions such as South Asia, where high oil prices may continue to put pressure on the recovery of fragile economies. Analysts generally believe that although the conflict is easing, the uncertainty of risks and supply recovery related to the Strait of Hormuz will still maintain high volatility and high-risk premiums in the international crude oil market. [Original link]