Does the next bull market for encryption rely on traditional assets such as the US stock market going live? The encryption industry is undergoing an irreversible structural change. Over the past 18 months, the altcoin market has been losing blood, and what really attracts funds on the chain is something else. The pre-market price of Cerebras on the blockchain closely matched the opening price on the first day of trading, and SpaceX did the same. Currently, OpenAI and Anthropic's pre-market contracts continue to attract a large amount of open interest on Hyperliquid. What truly generates trading volume and capital inflows on the chain is not the narrative of tokens, but the synthetic equity of real companies. This points to a conclusion that many people are unwilling to face: the core contradiction of the cryptocurrency market is that its high-quality assets can be counted on one hand. So, on chain US stocks have market demand. The industry has spent many years solving how tokens capture value, inventing various mechanisms such as repurchase, destruction, and staking dividends, but most of them have not taken off. The reason is not that the mechanism design is flawed, but that these mechanisms are attached to worthless things. A project without income, users, or executable rights cannot capture much with any sophisticated value capture mechanism. This issue was previously covered up because encryption is a closed pool. After the funds come in, they can only rotate between a few thousand tokens. BTC rises and overflows to ETH, ETH rises and overflows to the knockoff, and the knockoff rises and overflows to Meme. Junk tokens can also rise because funds have nowhere else to go. Now the pond has been cleared. On chain, SpaceX perpetual contracts can be traded, tokenized US bonds can be purchased, private equity loans can be participated in, and stablecoins allow the US dollar to flow frictionlessly on the chain. Funds have a choice: buy a token without cash flow, buy on chain exchange equity with real income, or synthetic equity in SpaceX? The answer does not need to be discussed. This means that the speculative properties of encryption will be compressed, but not eliminated. When there is ample liquidity, the market still tends to rise, but the probability of the previous situation where tens of thousands of coins rose at the same time and anything bought multiplied tenfold is very small. The rotating chain will break in the middle because funds may not necessarily flow to altcoins after overflowing from BTC, but may directly go to OpenAI perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid. In the previous four-year cycle, the three halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020 coincidentally collided with the global easing cycle, and the one in 2020 even collided with zero interest rates and unlimited QE. Is BTC rising because of the halving or because of excessive liquidity? 2024 provides a negative example: halving occurred, but interest rates remained high, liquidity was shrinking, and the bull market did not continue as planned. The four-year cycle is not a natural law of encryption, it is a coincidence that the liquidity cycle is wearing the cloak of halving. Will encrypted native things completely disappear? No, but it will differentiate into three layers. The first layer is the infrastructure layer. Stable coin settlement, on chain credit, tokenized securities, derivative clearing, cross-border payments, identity verification, DeFi protocols (DEX, lending, revenue aggregation), these are not token narratives, but businesses with real income. The second layer is Bitcoin. BTC is the only value storage tool that does not rely on any sovereign credit, as long as you remember the mnemonic words, you can cross any border with all your assets. This function is irreplaceable in the context of the decline of globalization and the depletion of sovereign credit. It is positively correlated with the liquidity cycle, and the real drivers of its price are the global credit pulse and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. The third layer is lottery tokens. DOGE has lived for 13 years without cash flow or equity, but it is the consensus symbol of the world's largest "improper participation in financial markets". Its value comes not from financial logic, but from the Schelling point. This layer will not disappear, just like the lottery industry will not disappear, but its scale will be limited by the total amount of "entertainment funds" flowing into the cryptocurrency market. Lottery tokens will always appear from time to time, but they may not necessarily be captured. The next bull market in the cryptocurrency industry is likely to be driven not by a new token narrative, but by the process of real assets entering a broader market through on chain infrastructure. Encryption seems to be becoming increasingly boring. However, the external world is always full of changes, and who knows the next stop for encryption.