How long does it take for SpaceX to reach $10 trillion? Morgan Stanley's latest estimated data Expected revenue for SpaceX: 2040: $3.4 trillion (estimated value) The highest probability of achieving a market value of over 10 trillion US dollars 2030: 330 billion US dollars (estimated value) Possible market value of 3 to 4 trillion US dollars. But Musk doesn't think so He just posted that SpaceX's revenue could reach $1 trillion by 2030 Many people think that Lao Ma is too good at drawing cakes, and his income in 2025 will only be 18.7 billion US dollars If it reaches 1 trillion US dollars by 2030, it needs to increase 53 times in the next 5 years Basically, the income needs to double every year In history, especially for companies with a market value of trillions, there is no precedent. Actually, earning $1 trillion in revenue is not the most difficult thing, the real challenge is the profit margin. Firstly, let's break down the structure of the $1 trillion revenue According to the current business weight and market expectations The proportion of AI computing power and orbital data centers should be the highest It will account for more than 50% of the income Next are Starlink communication, cloud services, and enterprise platforms Finally, there are launch, defense, and space services. If we simply think of it as a rocket launching company, then the landscape is low The key to revenue profit margin lies in AI and infrastructure businesses. Continue to deduce according to 1T If SpaceX becomes an infrastructure company That's about benchmarking the profit margin of Amazon, which is around 15% The profit of 1T is 150 billion US dollars The market expects PE to be 35 to 40 times higher, corresponding to a market value of 5 to 6 trillion US dollars If SpaceX upgrades to a software services company AI computing power services will be the mainstay of the business. If you advance to a software service company, the average profit margin can reach around 27% The market expects PE to be 40 times larger, with a market value of $10 trillion Starlink has become a global network layer with over 1 billion users, AI computing power running on track, and almost monopolizing the market in terms of transportation capacity. If SpaceX becomes a monopolistic enterprise, similar to NVIDIA So the profit will reach around 400 billion US dollars The market value will be in the range of $20 trillion, which is too sci-fi It has already exceeded the GDP of most countries today I personally believe that a revenue of 1 trillion US dollars and a profit of around 160 billion US dollars are relatively reliable That is to say, the market value is around 8 trillion US dollars This depends on whether the business of Starlink and AI computing power can become a global platform. Now that SpaceX has a market value of 2 trillion yuan, it will at least quadruple in 5 years. I want to eat Lao Ma's cake, but not now. I am considering when SpaceX will return to a market value of around 1 trillion yuan.