I personally think that in the first 1-2 weeks after SpaceX options go live, IV (implied volatility) is very likely to drop. Historically, for star IPOs like FB, COIN, and ARM, IV tends to spike when options first launch, but then compresses as the market re-prices the actual volatility. However, keep in mind that a drop in IV doesn’t necessarily mean the stock price will immediately fall. For example, when Circle launched, IV dropped first, but the stock price kept climbing. So, I wouldn’t rush to buy long-term Puts on the first day options go live. Instead, I’d wait for IV to come down a bit and for the Nasdaq inclusion expectations to play out before considering opening a position. My strategy mainly has two parts: First, buying long-term Put Spreads, like buying a 200P expiring at the end of 2026 while selling a 130P. Second, selling far OTM Call Spreads, betting it won’t exceed the valuation cap I have in mind. After all, I’m not expecting it to go to zero—I just think a $2.2T valuation is already very expensive, and the $2.5T-$3T range is where I’d feel comfortable starting to short consistently.