RamenPanda|6月 14, 2026 18:01
This might annoy a lot of people:
But technical analysis (TA) is basically astrology for traders.
It’s nothing more than confirmation bias + exploiting human psychology to find entry points.
Kind of like when people rushed into SPCE back in the day because they expected retail investors to confuse it with SPCX when it launched—that’s trading psychology at work.
SIVE skyrocketed 1900%, not because of some “golden cross, space comet, or fire-breathing dragon candlestick pattern”—that’s just someone trying to sell you a $499 course.
It happened because the market was pricing in future revenue after the GFS announcement.
AXTI went up 8000%, and it wasn’t because of some “golden waterfall candlestick alert” that went off when it was $8.
It was due to things like InP substrates, ASP price hikes, game theory around export controls, and demand for photonics.
If you want to figure out what other fools are believing from a psychological perspective, then sure, use TA.
But if you want to assess the real upside potential… forget it.
Over the past few months, people have been drawing $120+ TA targets for IREN, but when there’s a $6 billion ATM (share offering) sitting there waiting to be absorbed, all that stuff is useless.
What actually matters are themes (like the connection between LITE and AAOI), any news catalysts that impact future revenue, earnings forecasts, macro news, financial reports, float dynamics, etc.
From there, you can deduce what kind of market cap this company *should* have.
So, when it comes to entry points, sure, you can use TA.
But if you’re trying to figure out where the stock is headed, just throw that “T-Rex Omega Green Light Candlestick Indicator” out the window.
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