2026 May Make 2008 Look Like Sissy Stuff - TLT vs. USO US T-bond yields falling from above 5% and WTI crude oil reverting toward $50 a barrel from above $100 are among my highest-conviction views for 2H. What does President Trump need for midterms and for the next president not to be a Democrat? Lower energy prices, lower inflation, lower bond yields and a higher stock market. A top way to alleviate inflation, is a drop in stocks. Akin to Bitcoin and crypto insiders dumping to the mainstream via ETFs -- marking an enduring peak -- stocks may follow a similar path via the gush of IPO's -- insiders cashing out. Imagine the unimaginable if the US stock market does what's normal in a midterm election year and drops in 2026. Plunging leading indicator Bitcoin, along with surging volatility in gold and crude oil suggest some ebbing of the equity tide. A 20% S&P 500 decline would be about 50% of GDP and Bitcoin may be warning us on its way back toward $10,000. The 2026 pump-then-dump pattern is gaining contagion, including: Bitcoin, US natural gas, gold, silver, platinum, palladium, iron ore, corn....next? At about 2.5x GDP, the US stock-market is the 10 on a 1-to-10 scale for inflation or deflation, on about a 100-year historical basis. Pain is often required for gain. I have been wrong on US T-bonds for about a long as I was wrong about gold breaking above $2,000 from 2020-2023. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/tfy6l8n3n0cl {BI COMD} #gold #stockmarket #crudeoil #stockmarket @Bloomberg(Mike McGlone)