【 BTC Market Early Bus Quick Report: 64500 Resistance Verification Valid, Waiting for Double Tests of Agreement and Interest Rate Increase Bitcoin reached a high of $64500 yesterday and is currently trading around $64400. The resistance zone of 64000-65000 has been validated multiple times and the order book data shows a high concentration of sell orders in this range. Short positions can shrink to the floor, as the Air Force awaits the signing of the US Iran agreement on Sunday and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike decision on the 15th and 16th. The bulls took the opportunity to shrink and develop, secretly rebounding in small steps to around 64500. 1. Market status: Rebound hits the ceiling! The latest data shows that Bitcoin continues to hover below the resistance range of 64000-65000, which is currently the most important technical pressure level. Although the short-term market structure has improved and formed a higher low point, bulls still need confirmation above the resistance level to open up upward space. The fund rate remains positive while the price weakens, indicating that leveraged positions in the futures market are increasing while price momentum is weakening - a divergence that typically indicates potential risks. Once the breakthrough resistance is confirmed, the market focus may shift to the liquidity area around $74000; On the contrary, if it cannot stand firm, the support zone of $59000-60000 will once again face a test. Key verification: The trading volume during the rebound process did not continue to increase. Falling and increasing volume, rebounding and decreasing volume, the buyer's power is far weaker than the seller's. Core prediction reiterated: 64500-65000 is the ceiling of this rebound, with a probability of 80%. I maintain this prediction unchanged. 2. US Iran deal: Trump says to sign today, Iran says' not tomorrow ' There is a clear divergence in the message: On the 13th, Trump posted on his social media platform that "the agreement signing is scheduled for tomorrow (June 14th)" and stated that "the Strait of Hormuz will be open to all countries" after the signing. The Pakistani Prime Minister also confirmed that the agreement is expected to be finalized within the next 24 hours. However, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bekai made it clear on the 13th that the memorandum of understanding "will not be signed tomorrow", stating that "we need to wait for the exact signing time". The official Iranian news agency only stated that the agreement may be reached in the "coming days". Core disagreement: There are also significant differences in the content of the agreement. Iran demands the unfreezing of $24 billion in assets and the retention of management rights in the Strait of Hormuz, while the United States demands that Iran hand over nuclear materials. The US advocates extending the ceasefire for 60 days to focus on nuclear negotiations, while Iran demands the unfreezing of some assets before signing. Personal judgment: The probability of signing the agreement today has significantly decreased due to Iran's official denial. The most likely outcome is that both parties agree to extend the ceasefire and continue negotiations. Even if the US and Iran do sign a ceasefire agreement on Sunday, the price of Bitcoin will at most pulse up to around 65000, then fall back and turn positive into negative. This is the perfect opportunity to enter the short market, rather than chasing high and buying. 3. Bank of Japan raises interest rate: tomorrow (June 15-16) is definitely bearish ❗ ️ The Bank of Japan will hold an interest rate decision on June 15-16, and the market widely expects a 25 basis point hike to 1.0%. This is the highest interest rate level in nearly 30 years since 1995. From an overall balance perspective, interest rates have to be raised, "said Kato Izumi, President of Japan's East Short Research Company. Bloomberg economists warn that due to market expectations of hawkish actions by the Bank of Japan, the yen may face the risk of selling out all its gains. Personal judgment: Regardless of whether the US Iran agreement is signed or not, the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike is a definite negative. The time window is only 1-2 days left, and historical patterns show that BTC drops by more than 20% every time Japan raises interest rates. 4. The BTC trading strategy provided Current operation: Observe around 64400, do not chase too much. The price is in a strong resistance zone, with extremely poor profit and loss ratios for chasing long positions. Short position: Continue holding high position short positions. If today's agreement message hinders the surge to the 65000-66000 area, it will be an empty order plus warehouse area. The Bank of Japan's response: If the effective drop below 62500 after the interest rate hike is implemented, add short positions; If it falls below 60000, it will increase short positions. Target location: 60000 → 57000-58000 → 42000-45000. Position: not exceeding 25%, with low leverage. 5. The final reminder ❤️ Trump said he signed today, Iran said 'not tomorrow'. The probability of signing the agreement today has significantly decreased. Even if signed, it is only a 60 day ceasefire, not a permanent peace. Israel may go to war alone at any time. More importantly, regardless of whether the agreement is signed or not, the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike tomorrow (with a probability of over 90%) is the greater certainty negative. 64500 is not the bottom. 60000 is not the bottom either. 60000 is the first stop, 57000-58000 is the second stop, and 42000-45000 is the final stop. Bitcoin BTC 3D Integrated Trading Analysis 64500 Resistance US Iran Agreement Countdown to Japan Interest Rate hike