飞凡
飞凡|6月 13, 2026 23:55
Next Thursday at 2 PM, the Fed's June interest rate decision will mark the debut of the new Fed Chair, Walsh. The market is closely watching this new chair, who just took office on May 22 and was nominated by Trump, to see whether he will cave to the White House's pressure for rate cuts or stick to his traditionally hawkish academic stance. Given that U.S. inflation rebounded to a three-year high of 4.2% in May, I personally think interest rates will likely remain at their current levels. But there are two very interesting things about this FOMC meeting: First, Walsh's real policy ambition is to reduce unnecessary Fed disclosures to the market. Beyond cutting the frequency of press conferences, he also leans toward potentially scrapping the dot plot altogether. In other words, Walsh has always been inclined to downplay the dot plot's role in guiding the economy, which could be a black swan event for U.S. stocks and crypto. Second, right after the meeting ends, it's Juneteenth, and the U.S. stock market will be closed. Walsh will have just wrapped up his policy framework debut in the early hours, leaving Wall Street's major players with only Thursday evening's regular trading session to reshuffle their positions. Since the market will be closed on Friday, this means a massive amount of unfinished institutional structural rebalancing won't be able to be absorbed within the U.S. stock market's domestic liquidity pool. Based on the past two months' experience, when such significant uncertainty has nowhere to go in the U.S. stock market, the pressure tends to shift entirely to offshore dollars, forex derivatives, and the 24/7 crypto market. If nothing unexpected happens, next Friday, $BTC is highly likely to experience abnormal wicks or targeted liquidations caused by liquidity gaps.
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