Next week's BOJ policy meeting, situation update: 1. Carry trade is still adding to short positions on the yen... Last week, net shorts increased again to -145k. 2. Current market forecast shows a 97-99% probability of a rate hike next week. Looking at these two points together, it indicates that the market has fully priced in next week's rate hike. But here's the new uncertainty: recent news suggests Ueda will be absent next week due to illness, and the post-meeting remarks will be delivered by his deputy. The deputy's statements are harder to predict. So, the market is currently pricing in a scenario of a rate hike + dovish expectations (a hike, but no consecutive hikes). The yen likely won't appreciate significantly and might even "sell the news" with a slight depreciation. The basis spread will persist, and carry trade can continue. The model in the entire narrative is still stuck on the final trigger signal, and smart money hasn't reversed course yet... CME's JPY OI also didn't show any large-scale position unwinding or exits this week... ----------- In summary, while there's plenty of fuel, the risk hasn't been ignited yet... The only risk point is whether the deputy's post-meeting remarks will be hawkish or not...