[U.S. Bond Traders Lower Federal Reserve 2026 Rate Hike Bets] According to a report by Jinse Finance, on June 13, as optimism about the end of the Iran war increased, U.S. bond traders adjusted their bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates early next year. By Friday afternoon, interest rate swap trading indicated that traders now expect a 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by January 2027, whereas they had previously bet on a rate hike this year. This shift occurred after data showed that U.S. core inflation accelerated at a relatively moderate pace last month, U.S. crude oil prices fell below $85 per barrel, and U.S. President Donald Trump announced progress in reaching a peace agreement with Iran. 'Signs of a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the drop in oil prices have been key narratives driving the market,' said Dhiraj Narula, U.S. rates strategist at HSBC Securities. 'These factors have, to some extent, delayed expectations for the timing of rate hikes.'