My honest thoughts on the SpaceX IPO (& its impact on the market): • It's low float (only ~4%). We've seen this play out in crypto, and sometimes that actually leads to big expansions due to the combo of tiny supply and the additional compounder of index funds forced to buy from day 2. The setup for a squeeze is there, which makes this a risky short. • For me, it's too risky to trade on day 1. There's no clearly defined downside here - and I only take trades where the downside and upside are clearly defined. Interested in momentum trades once a setup presents. • Valuation-wise, it definitely feels inflated (once again, low float muddies the picture). $1.77T on $18.7B of revenue - roughly 95x sales, and they lost $4.2B last year. For reference, Morningstar's fair value is $63 a share. It is listed at ~$135. • This was engineered for insiders to exit. 20% of their stock unlocks two days after the company's first earnings report, with additional 7% tranches unlocking at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days. At some point in this period I'd be expecting weakness, even if it's met with a strong start. Interestingly, the Anthropic/OpenAI IPOs may be around this time too. I think the setup for some kind of local top over this period is there (as opposed to day 1), but obviously, there are many other variables at play. It's a watch. • The narrative (that I've seen floating around) that this sucks liquidity out of crypto is nonsense. No serious crypto holder or trader is selling their BTC for SPCX stock. It's a completely different buyer imo. Will it suck liquidity out of other stocks? Probably. We've seen this pattern in crypto dozens of times - a hot new listing drains liquidity from the alts. Something to be aware of if you're exposed to individual majors on Nasdaq. • Equities are no different, just slower and on a wider scale. Expect relative weakness in other majors as money rotates toward the shiny new thing. And some of that rotation is forced as MSCI adds SPCX to its indices from day two (index funds don't have spare cash sitting around). To buy it, they mechanically trim everything else they hold. So effectively, every pension fund tracking those indices becomes a forced seller of the rest of the market and a forced buyer of SpaceX, at whatever price it's trading. (Worth noting: S&P 500 inclusion requires profitability, so that bid comes later, which may mute this effect slightly more than the narrative is suggesting). • Longer term, I still think it's one of the most asymmetric plays in the world. Rockets, Starlink, and xAI under one roof. I am interested in being a holder over a multi-decade period. But I'm almost certain there's a more significant downturn in the near future that will give me a better entry point. I don't need to rush long-term positioning on a short-term whim. Any trade I make will be treated on its own R/R and individual merit, not as part of a long-term accumulation strategy.(Miles Deutscher)