Gold has fallen from $5596 in January to $4100 now. The underlying reason why gold, as a safe haven asset during the US Iran War, did not rise but fell is due to interest rates. Transmission path: Hormuz blockade pushes up oil prices, oil prices push up inflation (CPI 4.2%, PPI 6.5% both hit three-year highs), inflation suppresses expectations of interest rate cuts, and the market shifts from "two interest rate cuts within the year" priced at the beginning of the year to "a 25bp interest rate hike at the end of the year". Interest rate expectations have completely reversed. Gold does not yield interest, and the higher the interest rate, the greater the opportunity cost of holding it. Funds continue to flow from gold to US Treasury bonds. The verification of this logic is based on the ceasefire rumors in May. According to the safe haven logic, the expected increase in peace led to a slight drop in gold prices, but the gold price fell below 4500 on the same day. Because the market is not calculating the risk of war, but whether a ceasefire can lower oil prices, alleviate inflation, and whether the Federal Reserve will loosen its grip. The safe haven premium has decreased, but the expectation of interest rate hikes has not, so there has been a decline in both the war and the market. In early June, an abnormal signal appeared: the correlation coefficient between gold and the Nasdaq reached 0.91. Under normal circumstances, gold and the stock market should have a negative correlation, with one rising and the other falling. 0.91 means they almost completely synchronize their decline, which only occurs in one situation: market wide deleveraging. Institutions being pursued for margin require cash and do not choose assets. They sell whatever has good liquidity. Gold is one of the most liquid assets in the world, with ETFs trading in seconds and futures trading 24 hours a day, so it is the first to be sold for cash. BTC fell below 70000 during the same period, and spot ETFs had a net outflow of $2.8 billion for 9 consecutive days, following the same logic. The rise in gold prices to $5596 by 2025 is essentially a pricing strategy for the global liquidity easing cycle, with expectations of interest rate cuts from central banks driving capital inflows into gold. Now liquidity is tightening, and the previously pushed up parts are giving up. Turning point focuses on three signals: Firstly, the expectation of interest rate hikes has peaked, and the bottom of the 2022 gold bear market will occur in the month when the expectation of interest rate hikes has peaked. Secondly, the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is the most upstream switch in the entire transmission chain. Only when the strait is open can oil prices be lowered, and only when oil prices are lowered can inflation be eased. Thirdly, the flow of gold ETF funds has shifted from net outflow to net inflow, indicating that those who were forced to sell have sold out. Next week's FOMC dot matrix chart shows that if the interest rate hike trend further strengthens, gold is not yet at its bottom.