BitUnix analyst: Market begins to trade 'peaceful expectations', but the real test actually comes from liquidity and high interest rate environment BlockBeats News: On June 12th, there was a significant turning point in the situation in the Middle East. Hours after threatening military action against Iran, Trump stated that the US Iran agreement is nearing completion and could be signed as early as this weekend. Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan and other countries have simultaneously intervened in mediation, and the market has begun to price in advance the possibility of resuming navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and cooling the regional situation. However, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and negotiating team still deny that a final agreement has been reached, and the Iranian military maintains its highest level of readiness, indicating that geopolitical risks have not truly been resolved. From a market perspective, the biggest change currently is not the end of the war, but the beginning of funds attempting to price the post-war order. US Treasury Secretary Besson even publicly mentioned using Iran's frozen assets to compensate for the losses of Gulf countries, representing that some US discussions have shifted from conflict escalation to subsequent reconstruction and regional order arrangements. However, core differences such as nuclear issues, lifting of sanctions, and Israel's security demands have not been resolved, and the market still faces the risk of repeated agreements. At the same time, another potential change in the Federal Reserve's meeting next week is also worth paying attention to. Market expectations suggest that the new chairman Kevin Warsh may gradually downplay forward guidance and interest rate charts, returning more pricing power to the market. Against the backdrop of uncertain inflation and growth prospects, this means that the future path of interest rates may rely more on the market's own judgment, and bond yields and risk asset volatility have the opportunity to further rise. For the cryptocurrency market, the real pressure still comes from the funding aspect. Data shows that cryptocurrency ETFs have had a net outflow of $405 million in the past week and $5.49 billion in the past month. Even if geopolitical risks cool down in the short term and institutional funds have not significantly returned, the market is still in a tug of war between liquidity recovery and high interest rate environment.