I've been saying it for months. The stock market bubble won't pop because of real estate, rates, or a bank collapse. Everyone's watching the public stuff. Nvidia earnings. The Fed. AI capex. But you can't see the crack forming, because it's not in public markets. It's private. Private credit is now a $2.3 trillion market. 10x the size of 2009. A market with no regulator, that has never been through a real downturn. Meanwhile (see image below), SoftBank just asked banks for $6B against its OpenAI stock to keep funding OpenAI. And hey said no. The AI flywheel needs borrowed money to keep spinning. And the cracks are already starting to show.(Miles Deutscher)