金色财经|6月 11, 2026 13:40
**[World Bank Warning: If Middle East War Persists, Global Economic Growth May Halve by 2025]**
Gold Finance reported on June 11 that the World Bank stated on Thursday that if the Middle East conflict leads to prolonged reductions in energy supply and sharp declines in stock prices, global economic growth this year could be less than half of what is projected for 2025.
In a semi-annual report on global outlook, the World Bank noted that assuming the transportation of oil, natural gas, and other raw materials through the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal operations starting in August, the bank expects this year's economic growth to slow from last year's 2.9% to 2.5%. This forecast is slightly lower than the 2.6% growth predicted in January, but excluding the economic contraction during the pandemic and the output decline during the 2009 global financial crisis, this would mark the weakest year since 1991.
However, the World Bank warned that the longer the conflict persists, the greater the economic slowdown will be. World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill stated: "Further escalation of hostilities or prolonged disruptions in commodity supply could further drive up commodity prices, exacerbate inflationary pressures and food insecurity, trigger financial stress, and drag down economic growth."
If shipping disruptions are resolved quickly, the World Bank expects the U.S. economy to grow by 2.2% this year, consistent with the January forecast. However, the bank noted that approximately two-thirds of global economies will face growth slowdowns due to the conflict, with developing countries suffering the most severe setbacks, and the poorest households being hit hardest.
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