Bloomberg analyst: Bitcoin may be shifting from a 'leading risk asset' to a 'leading decline signal' BlockBeats news, on June 11th, according to Mike McGlone, Bloomberg's chief commodity strategist, Bitcoin had clearly led risk assets in previous uptrend cycles, and at this stage, this lead may be extending in reverse. In his latest comments, he stated that Bitcoin has "driven risk assets up" in the past, and now "may also drive them down", and believes that based on its comparison chart with the S&P 500 at the same scale (magnified 10 times), the overall beta assets may enter a downward year in 2026. He emphasized that since 2009, the annual total return of the S&P 500 has only experienced a decline in 2018 and 2022, both of which coincide with Bitcoin's downward cycle and correspond to the US midterm election cycle. He believes that the difference in the current market lies in the accumulation of structural pressures: inflation has once again become a political core issue, while stock market volatility has remained low for a long time, but risk indicators for commodities such as gold and crude oil continue to rise. This combination of "low volatility stocks+high-risk commodities" is relatively rare in history. In addition, McGlone also stated that since 2026, both Bitcoin and gold have shown signs of "mean reversion", which may indicate that the risk asset cycle is entering a repricing stage. He pointed out that Bitcoin and gold have retreated by about 50% compared with the peak in 2025 (around $126000), while the total return index of US treasury bond bonds may be forming a periodic bottom from the low region since 1983. At present, the market still lacks key confirmation signals: the S&P 500 to GDP ratio has fallen from its high level since 1928. If this indicator begins to shift, it may mean that a broader risk asset cycle enters a structural adjustment. [Original link]