灯塔说
灯塔说|Jun 11, 2026 04:34
Crypto Market Recap Macro perspective, neutral with some pressure: U.S. May CPI YoY at 4.2%, MoM at 0.5%, in line with expectations; core CPI MoM at 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%. This isn’t a major bearish signal for the market, but it’s not a clear sign of easing either. Previously, the market priced in about a 98% probability that the Fed would hold rates steady on June 17, but there’s still a risk of a 25bp hike before year-end. Data shows that on June 10, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $213.9 million, while ETH ETFs had net outflows of about $35.5 million. Additionally, Fold Holdings disclosed selling around $45 million worth of BTC to repay collateralized loans and free up operational funds. Some BTC treasury companies tend to prioritize balance sheet defense during weak markets. Technical perspective: A rebound is possible, but don’t mistake it for a reversal BTC is showing a clear short-term rebound, but there’s no major trend reversal yet. Currently, it’s more of a recovery after stabilizing near 60K. The price is now in the 62.6K–62.8K range, having bounced back from the 60.8K/61K demand zone. On smaller timeframes, there’s a reversal rebound structure, but on the 4H and daily charts, it’s still in a low-level consolidation and recovery phase after a downtrend. For a true bullish shift, BTC needs to hold above 64K–64.5K; otherwise, the 63K–64.5K range is more likely to act as a resistance zone or liquidity sweep area. ETH is weaker than BTC, with its rebound looking more like short-covering. Currently around 1655, it has bounced back from near 1600 in the short term, but on the 4H chart, it’s still suppressed below the 1700–1720 range. If ETH fails to reclaim the 1700–1720 level effectively, it could easily drop back to 1600, 1550, or even 1500 for a retest.
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