Who will take over after SpaceX goes public? On June 12th, SpaceX will go public with a valuation of $1.8 trillion, but only about 556 million shares have actually entered circulation, corresponding to a circulating market value of about $75 billion, accounting for 4.2% of the total valuation. At the beginning of the listing, the circulation is extremely small, but buying orders will come in three waves one after another. The first wave is the IPO subscription on June 12th. Institutions and retail investors bought 556 million newly issued shares at a fixed price of $135. About 70% of the funds will be distributed to institutional investors, while 30% will be reserved for retail investors. The ratio for retail investors is three times that of regular large-scale IPOs, and ordinary investors can subscribe through platforms such as Robinhood and Fidelity. The current subscription demand has exceeded 250 billion US dollars, nearly four times the excess. The second wave is the secondary market trading after the opening. After the IPO subscription is completed, the stock will be listed and traded on NASDAQ, with an opening price likely above $135. The price at this stage is determined by market supply and demand. The third wave is the forced buying of passive funds, which is the most noteworthy aspect. The Nasdaq 100 is one of the most important indexes in the US stock market, containing the 100 largest non-financial stocks, including Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft. There are over $600 billion in funds worldwide tracking this index, and they must hold positions based on the weight ratio of each stock in the index. Under normal circumstances, newly listed companies would have to wait for several months to qualify for inclusion. However, Nasdaq has specifically modified its rules for SpaceX, allowing for quick inclusion after only 15 trading days of listing. At the same time, the original minimum liquidity requirement of 10% has been removed, and a new weighting rule has been introduced: even if SpaceX's actual liquidity is only 5%, the index will calculate weights based on a maximum of 3 times, or 15%. After the inclusion takes effect, hundreds of funds tracking the index need to concentrate on buying SpaceX within a few days, while the circulating market is only $75 billion. In the short term, a concentrated influx of buying orders can easily push up prices. These funds do not look at valuations, do not make judgments, and buy when the rules are in place. The three waves of buying were almost seamlessly connected in the first month after going public. But this supply-demand imbalance will not last forever. SpaceX did not adopt the traditional 180 day unified release for IPOs, but designed a phased release. To understand this mechanism, one must first understand the equity structure after listing: the newly issued shares in the IPO account for about 4.2% of the total share capital, with Musk himself holding about 42%, and the remaining 54% held by venture capitalists, early employees, and other internal shareholders. The newly issued portion can be traded upon listing, while Musk's portion is locked in for 366 days without any movement, with phased unlocking only targeting the middle 54%. Specific schedule: In the first wave, two days after the Q2 financial report is released, locked in shareholders can sell up to 20% of their locked in shares. If the stock price remains 30% above the IPO price at this time and meets the standard for 5 out of 10 trading days, an additional 10% will be unlocked. That means the earliest batch of insiders may have started selling in early August. In the second wave, on the 70th, 90th, 105th, 120th, and 135th days after IPO, each node will unlock 7%, and the total of the five nodes will be 35%. In the third wave, 28% will be unlocked after the Q3 financial report is released, and the remaining will be released at the 180 day maturity. Musk himself is locked in for 366 days and will not participate in any early release. He controls over 85% of the voting rights, and this commitment is an important support for the market's short-term confidence in SpaceX. From listing to the end of the year, the market experienced a six-month supply and demand transition. In the first half, the circulation market is locked, and the certainty of buying is extremely high; In the second half, the chips are gradually released, and each financial reporting node is a selling pressure test. It is worth noting the timing design: by mid December, when the Nasdaq 100 annual rebalancing occurs, the vast majority of insider shares have been unlocked through the previous rounds. After a significant increase in liquidity, Nasdaq will correspondingly increase SpaceX's index weight, and passive funds will need to make additional purchases. This is equivalent to using institutional forced buying to support the market after several months of heavy selling by insiders.