[CICC: Energy Shock Continues, Fed to Neither Cut nor Hike Rates] Jin10 News, June 11 — A research report by CICC suggests that current U.S. inflation is still primarily driven by structural factors such as energy shocks, with cyclical inflation not yet evident. However, caution is needed regarding the risks of a rebound in overall demand driven by AI capital expenditure expansion and employment improvement. In terms of monetary policy, we maintain our baseline judgment that the Federal Reserve will neither cut nor hike rates this year. We expect the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance, with Walsh's primary task upon taking office being to rebuild policy credibility. It is more likely that the Fed will demonstrate its resolve by reinforcing balance sheet reduction expectations rather than signaling rate hikes. A scenario of 'balance sheet reduction first, rate cuts delayed' cannot be ruled out, which would exert sustained pressure on assets that are misaligned with Walsh's philosophy, rely on liquidity-driven dynamics, or benefit from excessive dollar issuance.