Housing: 0.6% → 0.3% OER homeowner equivalent rent: 0.5% → 0.3% These two are the most sticky sub items in cooling, which is exactly what the Federal Reserve wants to see the most Core commodities continue to experience deflation: new cars -0.3%, home furnishings -0.6%, car insurance down Indicating that tariff transmission has not yet occurred (so the tariff transmission judged by Bank of America is temporarily moderate) The airfare has actually increased by 2.7%, but the monthly rate core still remains at 0.208% It means that the cooling of housing and core commodities has helped to withstand a rising airfare But energy+3.9%, gasoline+7.0% (seasonally adjusted)/+8.6% (not seasonally adjusted) The previous increase in crude oil prices could have been anticipated, and the latest crude oil prices are decreasing . ----------- So the core CPI confirms that inflation is not spreading further, and currently 4.2% is almost entirely contributed by energy (oil prices) And now the oil price has come down . So if the Middle East can stabilize in the short term and oil prices do not continue to remain above 100%, then 4.2% is considered a peak . If high oil prices continue, they will gradually spread to the core in the future (now slowly spreading to airline tickets), which is the greater inventory of changes . The expectation of interest rate hikes within the year has dropped from the highest 50% during last week's non farm period to 43%