Why don't oil and gold follow conventional logic? -6.10 one ️⃣ Oil: War Upgrades, Oil Prices Don't Rise? More than two months later, Trump said more than 40 times that an agreement was about to be reached. The situation in the Middle East continued to be tense, but there was no substantive progress in the end. According to conventional logic, as conflicts continue, supply chains are disrupted, and risks in the Strait of Hormuz increase, international oil prices should have risen significantly. But the reality is that oil prices do not operate entirely according to this linear logic, but instead fluctuate in repeated expected changes. This is not simply a supply and demand issue, but the result of expected management. The United States and Wall Street capital weaken market panic about the energy crisis by continuously releasing information such as "an agreement is about to be reached" and "the situation may ease"; And when the situation becomes tense again, it provides support for oil prices. By repeating this, the crude oil market is no longer driven by a single event, but is controlled within a range that is more in line with US interests through the combination of news, capital, and commodity pricing forces. In other words, oil has not lost its geopolitical attributes, but its price response has been rearranged. What the market sees is the rise and fall of oil prices, and what really happens behind it is the long-term manipulation of global energy expectations. Conclusion: Behind the rise and fall of oil prices is not the logic of war, but how capital controls oil prices within the most favorable range for the US dollar system. two ️⃣ Gold: The long-term upward logic has not changed, but the rhythm has been repeatedly interrupted In recent years, more and more countries have attempted to reduce their dependence on the US dollar and increase their gold reserves. There exists a fund flow relationship similar to a "reservoir" between the US dollar, gold, Chinese yuan, and other major currencies. When the market doubts the credibility of the US dollar, funds naturally seek new value anchors, and gold becomes an important choice. The United States itself does not completely reject the rise of gold. The United States has the world's largest gold reserve of 8133 tons, and the rise in gold prices is also beneficial to its own asset value. But the key is that gold can rise, but it cannot replace the position of the US dollar in the global credit system. The US dollar is the core foundation of the US financial system, trading system, and geopolitical influence. Once the attractiveness of gold exceeds that of the US dollar, the hegemony of the US dollar will be fundamentally challenged. Therefore, the United States' attitude towards gold is not simply a suppression, but a phased suppression. When gold rises too quickly and safe haven funds flow excessively into gold, the United States needs to create or exploit certain events to increase market demand for the US dollar again. The Middle East incident is one of the important tools - when the energy supply chain and transportation chain are impacted, the dependence of global trade and settlement on the US dollar will actually increase, which to some extent suppresses the independent upward trend of gold. In other words, gold does not have an upward logic, but its rhythm is repeatedly intervened by the US dollar system. When it's time to rise, don't let it rise too fast, and when it's time to fall, let it keep you from falling. Conclusion: Gold is bullish for a long time, but the pace is determined by the the final say. three ️⃣ Middle East events=tools to maintain petrodollars Once there is a substantial blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, global crude oil supply will face a huge impact. For manufacturing giants such as Asia that heavily rely on imported crude oil, this impact is even more pronounced - energy instability means rising production costs, increased supply chain risks, and increased pressure on foreign exchange spending. In order to maintain energy stability, these countries will release strategic energy reserves on one hand, and accelerate the diversification of energy sources on the other. At the same time, they also have to increase their procurement of American oil. In this way, US energy exports have gained greater market space, American oil companies have gained substantial profits, and the US has further consolidated its position in the global energy system. This is precisely the key to the petrodollar system. As long as the world still needs to purchase energy in US dollars, the US dollar can maintain its core settlement currency status. If there were no energy shortages caused by the Middle East events, global demand for US oil may decrease, and more countries may try to trade energy in other currencies, with some funds even flowing into the gold market. But the ongoing situation in the Middle East has interrupted this de dollarization process, and even forced it to regress to some extent. In other words, the Middle East conflict appears to be a geopolitical issue, but fundamentally it is a moat of the US dollar settlement system. Conclusion: As long as energy must be bought in US dollars, the US dollar system cannot collapse. four ️⃣ US Treasury yields+tech stocks=dual engines of capital siphoning Another important strategy currently employed by the United States is to maintain the attractiveness of US bonds through expectation management. The so-called 'verbal interest rate hike' does not necessarily mean that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates, but rather by releasing a strong signal to make the market believe that the high interest rate environment will still be maintained, thereby keeping US bond yields at a high level. High yields mean that global funds are still willing to flow into US dollar assets. At the same time, the US capital market has formed a strong "siphon effect" through high growth, high narrative enterprises such as AI chips, semiconductors, SpaceX, etc. On one hand, US Treasury bonds provide high safety returns, while on the other hand, technology assets provide future growth imagination, allowing the United States to attract both conservative and venture capital at the same time. The core of all of this is still to maintain the US dollar system. If there is no support from petrodollars and energy trading begins to largely bypass the US dollar, then in the future, once the US enters a rate cut cycle, a large amount of funds may withdraw from US dollar assets and shift towards gold or other non US dollar assets. Therefore, before truly cutting interest rates, the United States must first stabilize the demand for the US dollar, stabilize the energy settlement system, and stabilize global capital's confidence in US dollar assets. In other words, the lower limit of US debt protection and the upper limit of technology stocks are pulling, both legs simultaneously sucking up global funds. Conclusion: Before cutting interest rates, it is necessary to ensure that money does not run away. five ️⃣ Regarding Iran: Extreme blockade+dual narrative In this game, Iran is the key variable. Iran is highly dependent on crude oil exports, and once exports are compressed to the extreme, its fiscal revenue, domestic economy, and social stability will face enormous pressure. When Iran's crude oil exports significantly decrease, or even only a small part of the normal state, domestic conflicts may be amplified. The United States is attempting to force Iran to experience internal instability under economic pressure through extreme blockade and external pressure. At the same time, the United States maintains a "dual narrative" in international public opinion: on one hand, it seeks reasons to strike or sanction, while on the other hand, it claims that negotiations are still progressing to appease market sentiment and prevent oil prices from getting out of control. This is also why the market repeatedly hears' an agreement is about to be reached '. It may not necessarily be for the purpose of truly reaching an agreement, but to serve market expectations, energy prices, and capital flows. Trump's more than 40 "soon to be achieved" are essentially tools for anticipatory management rather than foretelling diplomatic achievements. In other words, the protocol is a facade, and expected management is the goal. Conclusion: Whether or not to fight is not important, it is important to make the market believe that "the deal is almost over". six ️⃣ Ultimate goal: Keep global funds in the US dollar system The ultimate goal of a series of operations in the United States, from oil, gold, US Treasury bonds to technology stocks, can be summarized in three words: to retain money. SpaceX goes public - requires global funding. High valuation of US stocks - requires global funding. The stability of the US debt system also requires global funding. Only when the US dollar system continues to absorb funds, will the Federal Reserve have room to promote subsequent policy adjustments and even carry out deeper financial and fiscal reforms. Therefore, the Middle East events may appear to be political and military conflicts, but in essence, they are deeply embedded in energy and financial goals. It not only affects the security landscape of a few countries, but also impacts global capital flows, energy pricing power, and currency credit systems. In other words, all operations are directed towards the same goal: to keep the money in the United States and not go anywhere else. Conclusion: This is not a geopolitical game, it is a global capital battle. seven ️⃣ When will this game end? It does not depend on whether a negotiation is successful or whether a conflict is temporarily ceasefire. It depends on whether several deeper conditions are met: → Whether more funds will flow back into the US dollar system → Will more countries continue to purchase oil in US dollars Has the mainstream market voice shifted from pursuing gold to bullish on the US dollar Will US Treasuries and US Capital Markets Become the Preferred Reservoir for Global Funds Again Only when these goals are basically achieved, can the phased suppression of gold by the United States come to an end. Today's oil and gold are no longer simply commodities - they are the result of the combined effects of US dollar credit, global capital, energy security, and geopolitics. Oil is no longer simply rising according to the logic of war, and gold is no longer breaking through unilaterally according to the logic of hedging. In other words, many assets appear to be trading prices, but in reality they are trading orders. On the surface, it is a fluctuation of oil and gold, but behind it is a struggle for whether the US dollar system can continue to maintain its global dominance.