飞凡
飞凡|6月 10, 2026 10:07
SpaceX's $1.75 trillion valuation isn’t outrageous. SpaceX boasts the most powerful launch capabilities on Earth, with assets like the low-Earth orbit satellite network (Starlink), custom military satellite services (Starshield), civilian broadband, lunar projects, and the added narrative of future space-based AI computing power. In theory, SpaceX covers all possible future infrastructure. Pulling $75 billion from the market in one go isn’t even SpaceX’s limit. Based on the latest order book feedback, the market demand for SpaceX has already exceeded $250 billion (nearly 4x oversubscribed). Of course, part of SpaceX’s higher valuation, in my opinion, comes from its absolute irreplaceability at the U.S. government level. Looking back to 2025, when Trump’s relationship with Musk soured, SpaceX’s $22 billion federal contracts were on shaky ground. But with Jared Isaacman—who has deep ties to SpaceX’s commercial space ventures—being re-nominated and entering NASA’s core leadership, and NASA placing SpaceX’s lunar lander at the absolute center of its return-to-the-moon program in 2026, the tide turned again. SpaceX’s political risks and political premiums are really two sides of the same coin. When the national machine needs to operate at full speed to counter external competition, SpaceX is instantly granted an unshakable moat. In the short term, the U.S. military and government simply cannot find any substitutes for the Falcon rockets, Dragon spacecraft, Starlink, Starshield, and Starship systems—whether or not Trump personally likes Musk.
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