The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates within the year before the release of the May CPI in the United States is 0.688

According to CME Federal Reserve observation data, before tonight's release of the US May CPI data, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates within the year is 0.688, with a cumulative probability of 25 basis points of interest rate hike of 0.431, a cumulative probability of 50 basis points of interest rate hike of 0.212, a cumulative probability of 75 basis points of interest rate hike of 0.042, and a cumulative probability of 100 basis points of interest rate hike of 0.003. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release May CPI data tonight at 20:30 (UTC+8). The market expects May CPI to rise by 0.005 month on month, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.042, and core CPI to rise by 0.003 month on month, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.029. AI interpretation: The market's pricing of the probability of interest rate hikes before the release of CPI reflects a high level of vigilance towards inflation stickiness. The current expectation for interest rates is at a high level, indicating the market's deep dependence on the Federal Reserve's tightening policy. Tonight's data will directly verify the true path of inflation decline and determine the marginal adjustment direction of subsequent monetary policy. This data is a key indicator of the Federal Reserve's policy shift, and its results will reshape the market's pricing logic for the annual interest rate path.