The May CPI in the United States may return to the "four letter mark", with rising energy prices pushing up expectations of interest rate hikes within the year BlockBeats News: On June 10th, at 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release May CPI data. The market generally expects CPI to rise by 0.5% month on month in May, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.2%. If this expectation is fulfilled, it will bring the US CPI back to 4% for the first time since May 2023 and reach its highest level since April 2023. In terms of core CPI, the market expects a month on month increase of 0.3% in May, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.9%. The important factor contributing to the rise in inflation this round is believed to be the rapid increase in energy prices against the backdrop of the Iran conflict. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody's Analytics, stated that the recent price increase is mainly attributed to government policies, including the US Iraq War. It pointed out that the rise in gasoline and diesel prices will push up the prices of transportation goods from groceries to Amazon packages, and airlines have also passed on higher aviation fuel costs to passengers. Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Jiaxin Wealth Management, stated that the current source of price pressure is no longer limited to the energy sector, but involves factors such as money supply and AI. She believes that even if the conflict is quickly resolved, oil prices may not necessarily return to their previous lows because the production side has already been disrupted. For the Federal Reserve, the upcoming CPI and subsequent PPI data will be important references before the June interest rate meeting. Recently, bond traders have increased their bets on interest rate hikes, with some suggesting that the Federal Reserve may take action as early as September. If the CPI in May significantly exceeds expectations, especially if the range of increase further expands, it may strengthen the policy rationale for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year.