2026 Bottom signal series 1- Profit and loss bite, structural reset Recently, I have reviewed and compiled some cyclical indicators that have maintained high winning rates in history, and I hope to share them in a series of tweets with everyone. We are not just carving boats, but also need to understand the logic behind them. When more and more signals appear and point to the same conclusion, it can enhance our confidence and success rate in bottom fishing. Write the first issue today: The first signal of the cyclical bottom interval - analysis of BTC's profit and loss supply data (The logical explanation is a bit long, please read it patiently if you are interested in the research; if you only want to see the conclusion, please skip directly to the end) Profit and loss supply (SIPL) is essentially a real-time snapshot of the distribution of holding costs across the entire market. Every time the price fluctuates, a batch of BTC's profit and loss status is reversed. The amount of reversal depends on how many chips have accumulated in the price range it crosses. The green line in the graph represents the supply at a profit, while the red line represents the supply at a loss. Extending the timeline to the entire history, you will find that whenever the green and red lines intersect (interlock), they often correspond to periodic bottom regions. one ⃣ At the beginning of 2015, during the bear market's bottoming stage, the two lines were entangled for most of the year; two ⃣ In January 2019, the two lines briefly intersected and quickly separated; three ⃣ March 2020, 3.12 incident, completed interleaving and repair within a few days; four ⃣ From the end of 2022 to the beginning of 2023, the bottom area after FTX thunderstorms. This is not a coincidence, there is clear and explicit logical support behind it. Mathematically speaking, the intersection of two lines means that profit and loss supply each account for approximately 50%. That is to say, the spot price has fallen below the cost price of half of the chips in the entire market. Why is there a ceiling around 50%? Because there is a large part in the circulation supply that will never incur losses; This includes ancient dormant coins, lost coins, and chips that have never moved since early low-cost purchases. Deducting this part, the active chips that can be played underwater are approximately 50% to 55%. That is to say, when the loss supply approaches 50%, all the chips that may incur losses are already underwater, and there is no room for the loss to continue expanding. At the behavioral level, most people who can cut meat have already done so, and the rest are not intended to be sold. This is the definition of seller exhaustion on the chain. At present, the red line has reached about 1023w pieces, which is the highest absolute level in history. Green line falls back, profit and loss bite! In terms of proportion, it is at the same level as the bottom of the first four times. But there are two things to remind friends: one ⃣ Interleaving is a regional signal, not a precise timing signal. It took me half a year to finish the grinding in 2015, and I finished it in a few days in March 2020. It tells you that the cycle position has arrived, but it won't tell you when it will bottom out; two ⃣ The form after interweaving is more important than the interweaving itself. To truly confirm the bottom, it is necessary to see the two lines reopen and the green line trend rebound, which represents the completion of the turnover of underwater chips and the reset of the market cost structure. It is necessary to continuously pay attention to the depth and duration of bite, with the former determining the level of the bottom and the latter determining the duration of grinding the bottom. Of course, you can take it as the first guiding signal and combine it with other data and indicators that I will update later to comprehensively measure and develop your bottom fishing plan. ---------------------------------------- Serious reminder! My sharing is based solely on personal analysis and speculation of data or indicators, and is not intended as a definitive conclusion, let alone investment advice.