The market can at least be said to have temporarily hit a bottom for now. Whether it continues to drop or rebounds depends mainly on tonight's CPI. Since the market has already priced in rate hikes and risk aversion, if the CPI data is less than or equal to expectations = the market will shift its expectations from rate hikes back to rate cuts, leading to a rebound. If the CPI data exceeds expectations, the downward trend will strengthen further, and the next potential bottoming window will have to wait until the 6/17 FOMC. Key points to watch at 20:30: Core MoM ≤ 0.2%: Year-end rate hike probability drops from 70% → 45-50%, strong rebound Core MoM 0.3% (rounding issue here, depends on whether the raw data is high or low): Rate hike probability drops from 70% → 60%, weak rebound/correction Core MoM 0.4%: October rate hike probability rises from 70% → 85%, continued drop Core MoM ≥ 0.5%: July rate hike probability increases, market panic and crash Weighted rebound probability is about 60-65%. PS: I’ll be heading out soon, so I might not have time for real-time analysis when the data is released tonight. Attaching two charts made by GPT and Claude for quick reference.