qinbafrank|6月 10, 2026 05:28
The most talked about topic in tonight's market is undoubtedly the May inflation trend in the United States. Previously, here was https://(x.com)/qinbufark/status/2062912854983086556? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A has discussed that the most crucial inflation data is the year-on-year and month on month data of the core CPI. According to the latest tweet by Bloomberg's Chief Economist of the United States, Anna, based on Bloomberg's own data:
The rebound of computer related products (during the shortage of memory chips and NAND), strong airfare prices, and accelerated inflation of sports equipment and large household appliances (mostly metal rich items - this may seem like tariff transmission, but it is not). The rebound of commodity inflation is still ongoing, and so is energy inflation.
But Bloomberg's data shows that the core CPI is close to the level consistent with the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. How should I explain it? Mainly due to weak inflation in entertainment services, people are cutting back on gyms, clubs, streaming services, veterinary visits, dental visits
Simply put, the rebound in energy and commodity inflation continues, but inflation in the service industry remains weak. From a personal perspective, there is also a possibility that the strengthening of energy and commodities has compressed the consumption of the service industry.
Market expectation:
The year-on-year comparison between the broad CPI and core CPI was 4.2% and 2.9%, while the month on month comparison was 0.5% and 0.3%.
Watch Cleveland Fed's real-time inflation forecast:
The year-on-year comparison between the broad CPI and core CPI was 4.18% and 2.82%, while the month on month comparison was 0.46% and 0.23%.
Previously, the Cleveland Fed's inflation forecast data was very close to the final released inflation data, with a high prediction success rate. It depends on how the party goes tonight
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