Whether we see a second dip today depends on tomorrow's CPI data. If the data is bad, then continuing to drop all the way to the 6.17 FOMC would be way too scary. So, no matter what, it’d be better to see a rebound first before pricing in the dot plot. Otherwise, a half-month continuous drop just on rate hike expectations is really too harsh. The oil price surge caused by the U.S.-Iran situation has been going on for a while, so an ugly CPI is inevitable. This week’s oil price drop might just be setting the stage for expectations that high oil prices and inflation won’t persist.