Just now, this wave of high opening and low moving of the US stock market has led to the overall downfall of gold and silver Youbing (Deep-fried round and flat dough-cake), which is really scary. It can not help but cause people to worry about the risk of the tail of the bull market. But generally speaking, tail risk should not be the kind of "one day, one time collapse" that is predicted at an accurate time point, but rather the gradual evolution of structural contradictions and the continuous strengthening of momentum. There is indeed a common expectation of SpaceX going public and the World Cup opening in the current market, but such deterministic events are usually digested early. The current decline may be attributed more to the safe haven CPI data tomorrow night and the subsequent changes in FOMC interest rate expectations. But the US stock market fell on Black Friday last week, recovered on Monday yesterday, and then rose and fell today, following a very conventional and stable recovery path. Therefore, as long as the data tomorrow night is not too excessive, the US stock market and risk market should still be stable. Moreover, the synchronous decline of gold and silver and crude oil is actually very unreasonable. These two should be mutually hedged, so we can only conclude that the market is hedging and liquidity is withdrawing. This situation can only be saved by the improvement of macro mood. Trump should be able to do something.