Quick report on BTC market: 61500 lost, confirmed early decline, waiting for CPI trial ❗ ️] Bitcoin was still fluctuating at 62500 last night and has fallen to around 61500 this morning. 64200 is the top of this rebound, and this judgment has been verified by the market. The early decline in price indicates that the market has started trading on the expectation that 'CPI may be higher than expected'. Before the release of CPI data tomorrow night, the bears had already taken the lead. 1. A set of core data overview. ETF status: Net outflow of $91.37 million on June 8th (14 consecutive days of net outflow) IBIT outflow on June 8th: $233 million Stable coin outflow: over $3 billion this week 24-hour full network liquidation: $264 million (long orders of 166 million, short orders of 97.9 million) Fear and Greed Index: 10 (Extreme Fear) Strategy's latest purchase: 1550 BTC (approximately $101 million) MVRV Z-Score: Approximately 0.24 (near historical bottom area) June 10th: US CPI data released (tomorrow night) June 15-16: Bank of Japan interest rate decision (probability of rate hike exceeds 90%) 2. Why did the rebound stop at 64250? Why did it fall earlier? Firstly, the rebound is unlimited, and short covering has ended. There was no bullish main volume signal at the 4-hour level, and the price was rejected twice in the 64000-64200 range, with the rebound high gradually decreasing. This is a pullback driven by short covering, not incremental capital entering the market. Secondly, the market is trading 'CPI negative expectations'. The May CPI in the United States will be released tomorrow night, with a previous value of 3.8% and market expectations of around 4.18%. The data shows that the probability of CPI exceeding expectations is about 40-50%. Funds should choose to hedge in advance instead of waiting for data to land before running. Smart money is running away. Thirdly, ETFs are still experiencing net outflows. For 14 consecutive trading days, there has been a net outflow of approximately 4.4 billion US dollars. Although yesterday's outflow narrowed to 91.37 million US dollars and ARKB/FBTC turned into inflows, IBIT still had an outflow of 233 million US dollars, and institutional attitudes were divided but the overall situation has not yet turned. Pay attention to IBIT here, Beile De has been selling Bitcoin for many days now!! Fourthly, there is a large-scale outflow of stablecoins. More than $3 billion withdrew from the cryptocurrency market this week, and investors are withdrawing their funds rather than investing new ones. Nearly $40 billion in funds has shifted towards the AI track of the US stock market. On chain activities are at a multi-year low, with retail and institutional funds continuing to flow out since Q4 2025. 3. The bullish signal is also appearing. Firstly, the marginal easing of geopolitical pressure. Trump stated that both Israel and Iran hope for an immediate ceasefire, and the drop in oil prices is a short-term positive for risk assets. Secondly, ETF outflows have significantly narrowed. From hundreds of millions of dollars per day to 91.37 million dollars, ARKB and FBTC have turned into inflows, but not enough to reverse the downward trend. Thirdly, Strategy buys at the bottom. Buy 1550 BTC for $101 million, breaking concerns about 'selling'. The company currently holds approximately 845256 BTC with an average cost of approximately $75500. This is a micro strategy of passive buying, not active buying of BTC. Fourthly, the MVRV Z-Score dropped to 0.24. After entering this region in history, Bitcoin has launched a new bull market. Fifth, the 60000 fake stocks quickly recovered after falling below, with buying support. The price briefly fell below 60000 but was quickly bought back. 4. Tomorrow's CPI is a key variable. The May CPI for the United States will be released on June 10th. The previous value was 3.8%, and the market expectation is about 4.18%. Three scenarios: CPI higher than expected (>4.2%): bearish, accelerating decline. The market is pricing this scenario in advance. CPI meets expectations (about 3.8-4.2%): neutral bearish, continues to decline after oscillation. CPI lower than expected (<3.8%): Short term positive, may rebound to 63000-64000 (bullish trend). Independent judgment: No matter what CPI is, it cannot change the direction of mid-term decline. Being lower than expected is just giving bulls one last chance to escape, not the starting gun for a bull market. 5. Mid term bearish sentiment has not yet landed. The probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates on June 15-16 exceeds 90%. Historical pattern: Since 2024, every time Japan raises interest rates, Bitcoin has fallen by 20-30%. Risk of closing interest in carry trades: strengthening of the yen → tightening of global liquidity → pressure on risk assets. The Federal Reserve FOMC meeting will be held on June 16-17. In May, the non farm payroll added 172000 yuan, far exceeding expectations, with a 70-80% probability of interest rate hikes before the end of the year. Two cash pools are still pumping water: SpaceX raised $75 billion in its IPO on June 12th and the World Cup opened on June 11th. 6. Trading strategy. Current operation: Observe around 61500. The price has fallen below 62000, but the profit and loss ratio for continuing to chase short needs to wait for a rebound. CPI response: (1) Exceeding expectations → Directly empty, target 60000 (2) Meets expectations → wait-and-see, waiting for Japan's resolution (3) Lower than expected → wait for rebound to reach 63000-64000 before being blocked and then empty again Empty position layout: If the CPI is lower than expected and triggers a rebound to 63000-64000, which is blocked, it is an empty position layout area with a stop loss of 65500. Target location: 60000 → 55000-58000 → 42000-45000. Position: not exceeding 25%, with low leverage. Counterfeit currency: temporarily avoided. 7. The final reminder. 64200 is the top of this rebound, it has been confirmed. The early drop in price to 61500 indicates that the market is digesting the negative expectations of CPI. Tomorrow night's CPI data is the biggest short-term variable. But remember: no matter what the CPI data is, it cannot change the direction of the mid-term decline. 60000 is the first stop, 55000-58000 is the second stop, and 42000-45000 is the final stop. Control your hands before the release of CPI data. Wait for the data to land, observe market reactions, and then decide on the next step. Bitcoin BTC 3D Integrated Trading Analysis CPI Countdown 60000 Defense War