灯塔说|6月 09, 2026 13:33
The BlackRock report is quite interesting.
On the surface, it is about CPI and the US Iran situation, but in reality, it is giving the market a preventive shot. The CPI expectation of 4.2% far exceeds the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, which means that if Wednesday's data is fulfilled, the expectation of interest rate hikes will instantly heat up.
But there is a detail worth noting here. BlackRock deliberately put the Strait of Hormuz and oil inventories together, saying that this is not accidental. US oil inventories are approaching a 40 year low, and if the situation in the Middle East worsens, a surge in energy driven inflation is almost inevitable.
It can be roughly concluded that what BlackRock is truly concerned about is not the CPI itself, but the structural issues of inflation. The simultaneous rise in food, energy, and service prices has not solved the fundamental problem with the Federal Reserve's previous interest rate hikes.
For the market, this is indeed a stress test. In a high borrowing cost environment, risk assets are the first to bear the brunt. If CPI exceeds expectations, the increased probability of interest rate hikes may cause the market to experience a short-term pullback to lower levels
@BlackRock
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