[Analyst: ECB's Future Rate Path Unclear, High Threshold for Hawkish Repricing] Jin10 Data, June 9 – Analyst Justin McQueen stated that since the last meeting, European Central Bank (ECB) officials have remained firmly inclined toward a rate hike in June and have not contradicted market pricing. Policymakers generally believe that even if the Middle East conflict is resolved, the upward risks to inflation are sufficient to justify policy adjustments. Regarding the rate path after June, the ECB has deliberately refrained from providing clear guidance but has released some marginal signals. Governing Council member Nagel reiterated that the baseline expectation implies two rate hikes; Governing Council member Makhlouf acknowledged market pricing of two to three rate hikes, which can be seen as slight recognition of current expectations. The lack of opposing voices within the ECB suggests that the Governing Council is broadly satisfied with at least two rate hikes. However, the threshold for further hawkish repricing in the market remains high. Currently, the market estimates a 72% probability of three rate hikes by the end of the year. The ECB would need to signal more persistent inflation concerns or confirm that further rate hikes are already on the agenda to drive a meaningful hawkish shift in the market.