[Arthur Hayes: rising oil prices, AI super IPO boom and Trump's anti AI comments may puncture the AI foam and drag down the entire encryption market] BlockBeats news, on June 9, Arthur Hayes, BitMEX Co founder, said in the latest article "Reality Test" that if the oil price continues to rise due to the US Iraq conflict, it may trigger the collapse of the AI stock foam and drag down the entire crypto market. Oil prices and other hydrocarbon energy prices are key variables that affect the investment system. If traffic restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz continue deep into the second quarter, there may be a significant increase in spot prices for hydrocarbon energy and other key commodities in the third quarter. If oil prices continue to rise and inflationary pressures affect the US midterm elections, Trump may turn to a tough stance on data center construction, AI regulation, and taxation to win voter support. He believes that the market may not regard it as an election strategy, but will believe that Trump will really limit AI capital expenditure and tax AI companies, thus triggering the collapse of AI stock foam. Hayes also pointed out that AI has absorbed a significant amount of US dollar liquidity in the past few years. It is estimated that since November 2022, the scale of AI related debt issuance has been about $1.5 trillion, while the US M2 has also increased by about $1.5 trillion during the same period. He believes that this explains why Bitcoin failed to further rise significantly against the backdrop of the expansion of US dollar liquidity. The three factors that pierced the AI foam include the rising cost of energy, the inability of the market to absorb the three AI related IPOs of SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI, and Trump's turning against AI. He said that if AI stock falls, investors will lack additional funds to buy Bitcoin, banks will also tighten loans, and credit contraction will suppress liquidity. In terms of investment portfolio, Hayes stated that Maelstrom's stock portfolio holds a significant position in US listed energy producers; It has sold AI related stocks and sold off non core cryptocurrency assets. We sold HYPE, NEAR, and WLD last week, and also sold ZEC due to the Orchard Pool vulnerability. It still holds Bitcoin and ETH. He believes that the collapse of the AI foam may lead to a financial crisis, which will lead to large-scale liquidity expansion, so Bitcoin may fall first and then rise; At the same time, it will conduct tactical short selling transactions through derivatives. [Original link]