qinbafrank
qinbafrank|6月 08, 2026 12:19
As a good news that can ease the tension, the point I am thinking today is whether Netanyahu will change from a close ally of Trump to a "negative asset" of Trump if he acts alone without violence recently? During the negotiation process between the US and Iran, it can be seen that neither of them wants to escalate the situation proactively, and any minor frictions are only superficial. However, in this process, the interests of Israel, especially the personal interests of Israeli leader Netanyahu, show more and more obvious differences with the interests of Trump and the United States: 1. Israel, based on its own security, hopes that the war will continue to weaken Iran's power; Based on the economic situation and domestic elections, Trump hopes to reach an agreement as soon as possible, so as to open the Straits to stabilize the global economy and avoid the upcoming mid-term elections from being further impacted by the war. In this situation, the differences between the United States and Israel are clearly growing, and the conflicts arising from the interests of both sides are becoming increasingly acute. 2. This has already been made public. Yesterday Axios reported that Trump 6 asked Netta not to retaliate against Iran's missile attack; Trump also told the Financial Times that Netta "has no choice", and said that "I have the final say, but he has the final say". This indicates that the strategic priorities of the United States and Israel are beginning to conflict 3. Will Trump increasingly suppress Netta in the future? There is a high possibility from a personal perspective What Trump couldn't bear most was not that his allies were tough, but that they made him look "out of control", "dragged down" and "failed negotiations". So if Netta continues to sabotage the negotiations, Trump's counterattack against him will probably be more and more like Trump's political operation rather than traditional diplomatic mild persuasion: 1) Publicly humiliating, openly cutting off, shifting responsibility to the Neta, and bypassing the Neta to engage with other political forces in Israel. There are already signs of this. AP reported that Trump admitted to criticizing Netta with words such as "crazy" on the phone, and said that the war between Israel and Hizbullah was hindering the peace negotiations between the United States and Iran. This is no longer a simple "curse". Trump began to describe Netta as a signal to hinder the diplomatic achievements of the United States. 4. What should we do if we really want to suppress Netta and Trump Club? 1) Publicly stating that the Israeli people need a leader who can get things done. 2) Meet Israeli opposition leaders such as Gantz, Lapid, Bennett, Eisenkot, etc. 3) Reduce personal endorsement of Netanyahu before the Israeli elections. 4) Pressure Neita on military assistance, ammunition rhythm, intelligence sharing, and joint action authorization. 5) Let the US Middle East envoy, Republican establishment, and American Jewish organizations send a signal that 'the Neta has become a negative asset'. This does not necessarily mean directly "mobilizing domestic opposition forces in Israel to engage him", but the effect may be similar: Trump does not need to overthrow Netta in person, as long as he does not cover for Netta, the domestic political costs of Netta will skyrocket. It can be expected that as the differences between Chuanpuneta become more and more serious, the political space of Neita will also be suppressed. Of course, in the short term, Neita will not collapse immediately. Because he still holds the governing machinery, the right-wing base, and the power of security discourse in times of war, and is also adept at dividing the opposition. In the medium term, if we continue to act recklessly and go it alone, Neita's situation will significantly deteriorate. Especially if Trump defines him as a 'person who undermines the US peace agreement,' then Neta's US card will shift from assets to liabilities. Just personal thinking, for reference only
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