When Trump's rhetoric pushed the high point of the rebound to around 64250, this rebound also came to an end. A series of negative factors have been added together in recent times, with Bitch breaking six, running five, and then running four, and there will be no turning back! This morning, Trump stated that Netanyahu would have "no choice" to accept the agreement with Iran and emphasized that "whether the agreement is reached or not is up to me. This' dominant statement 'immediately triggered a reflexive market rally, with Bitcoin breaking through the $64000 mark! The essence of rebound: message driven, non trend reversal!! As I have judged, this rebound is not a fundamental reversal. In an NBC interview, Trump also clearly signaled a rate cut, stating that "there is no reason to raise interest rates, growth is the best thing, and growth will not lead to inflation. This is consistent with his pattern of pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates during his first term, once again reinforcing market expectations for loose policies. The key issue is that after the market calms down, it realizes that the so-called "big positive" is just a few statements. What Trump said was' close to reaching an agreement 'or' the agreement is up to me ', not' already signed '. As of the morning of June 8th, the United States and Iran are still playing games over core terms such as nuclear issues and sanctions exemptions, and there has even been the first missile exchange between Israel and Iran since the ceasefire in April. The rebound of the market is based on "expectations" rather than "facts", which is why prices quickly fall back after touching 64250- without a substantial agreement landing, buying cannot be sustained. The following factors are converging to form the structural support for "breaking six, running five, and then running four": 1. Continuous net outflow of ETF The US spot Bitcoin ETF has had a net outflow for 14 consecutive trading days, with a net outflow of $1.72 billion last week, the largest weekly outflow since its launch in January 2024. Institutional funds are still withdrawing. 2. Expectations of macroeconomic interest rate hikes are heating up The non farm payroll in the United States increased by 172000 in May (far exceeding expectations by 85000), and the probability of interest rate hikes before the end of the year has soared to 70-80%. The newly appointed Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, will preside over the first FOMC meeting on June 16-17. 3. Countdown to Bank of Japan's interest rate hike The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on June 15-16 has a probability of raising interest rates exceeding 90%. Since the start of Japan's interest rate hike cycle in 2024, each hike has caused Bitcoin to fall by at least 20%. 4. The AI capital siphon effect continues Michael Saylor explicitly stated that the surge in AI investment is pulling funds away from Bitcoin. Investors expect companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic to go public, and the opportunity cost of holding BTC has become difficult for some investors to ignore. Intensive stacking of important events in June: June 10th: US CPI data for May June 11th: The opening ceremony of the World Cup between the United States, Canada, and Mexico June 15-16: Bank of Japan interest rate decision June 16-17: Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting However, the potential variables we need to pay attention to are: 1. Short term disturbances in CPI data If the CPI data on June 10th is lower than expected (previously 3.8%), it may trigger a short-term rebound. The market expectation is about 4.18% (Cleveland Fed forecast), and there is still uncertainty. 2. Geopolitical fluctuations After the US Iran ceasefire agreement was reached on April 8th, its fragility was once again exposed within two months. If the negotiations break down, oil prices may soar again and inflation expectations may rise. 64250 is most likely the high point of this rebound. Next, 60000 is the first stop, 55000-58000 is the second stop, and 42000-45000 is the final stop. CPI data (June 10th) is the next key variable - if CPI is higher than expected, it will accelerate the decline; If CPI is lower than expected, there may be a final bullish trend, but it will not change the medium-term direction. Bitcoin BTC three-dimensional integrated trading analysis, prediction and verification, Trump's mouth cannon breaks six, runs four