水博乱乱
水博乱乱|6月 07, 2026 22:38
Signs of the one-sided trend coming to an end are increasing. The Friday drop below 60K, based on on-chain data, showed another peak in realized losses, but it didn’t continue to expand over the weekend and has started to pull back. Typically, such peaks in realized losses indicate that panic selling has mostly exhausted itself. So, from an on-chain perspective, this phase seems to be wrapping up. Plus, over the weekend, we saw the first higher high in this downward trend. Looking at options data, there were quite a few longs quietly entering over the weekend. At the same time, Coinbase has been consistently buying throughout the weekend (are the Americans sneaking in?), and the Coinbase premium is narrowing. However, a word of caution: the main driver of this drop has been ETF outflows. The weekend rebound without ETF outflows doesn’t necessarily mean there won’t be more outflows after markets open next week. So, we still need to keep an eye on that. Also, judging by last Friday’s sentiment, Monday and Tuesday might not look too great for U.S. stocks. In summary, on-chain data suggests the one-sided trend is nearing its end, options data shows longs entering, and spot buying from the U.S. is happening. The only uncertainty is Monday’s U.S. stock market and ETF flows. So, the conclusion for now is that various data points indicate signs of the one-sided trend ending. We’re just waiting for confirmation on ETF outflows. If U.S. stocks don’t see a major drop on Monday (a small dip is fine) and ETF outflows decrease, the stabilization of this trend will become more certain.
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