金十数据|Jun 07, 2026 19:10
Jin10 Data, June 8 – [Goldman Sachs: No Longer Expects Fed Rate Cuts This Year Due to Strong Labor Market] Goldman Sachs economists stated that due to a stronger-than-expected labor market, they no longer anticipate the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. The bank has postponed its forecast for the Fed's last two rate cuts from December 2026 and March 2027 to June 2027 and December 2027. However, Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Economist Jan Hatzius noted that since inflation "seems unlikely to become self-sustaining," the likelihood of the Fed raising rates remains low.
U.S. job growth in May exceeded all expectations, demonstrating the resilience of the labor market and intensifying market bets on further rate hikes by the central bank. Goldman Sachs continues to believe the probability of a rate hike is low but has raised the likelihood of a small rate hike from 10% to 20%. The bank's baseline forecast still anticipates two 25-basis-point rate cuts next year, but the probability has been revised down from 40% to 30%. Goldman Sachs has also lowered its forecast for the U.S. unemployment rate this year from 4.6% to 4.4%.
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