The five core questions related to determining the bear market trend of BTC and Bitcoin, as well as the bottom fishing price! Recently, many people have been predicting the position of Bitcoin and the best price that may be possible to buy at the bottom. But I think the following five questions are more important. one ️⃣ What asset is the market currently pricing Bitcoin as? This is the most fundamental issue. If the market regards BTC as "digital gold", then it should be more like a long-term stored value asset, with the logic of resisting fiat currency depreciation, credit expansion, and sovereign currency risks. But if, as I mentioned earlier, the nature and narrative of Bitcoin change and the market sees BTC as a "high beta technology stock/liquid asset," then its price will be more influenced by US bond yields, the US dollar, the Nasdaq, AI fund siphoning, and risk appetite. The recent strong employment data in the United States has raised expectations of interest rate hikes, putting pressure on risk assets. This macro environment is crucial for the pricing of BTC. two ️⃣ Who will the next round of true marginal buying come from? The price of Bitcoin is currently rising by marginal buying. Now we need to ask: Where will the buying orders for BTC in the future come from? Is ETF continuing to absorb? Is it a purchase of corporate treasury? Is it a sovereign fund? Is it a pension? Is it the return of individual investors? Or is it just a short-term leveraged fund re entering the market? This issue is very important because recently ETF fund flows are no longer one-sided friendly. Farside data shows that the cumulative net inflow of US spot BTC ETFs is still significant, with a cumulative total of approximately $53.992 billion, but short-term outflows indicate that both "long-term institutionalized narratives" and "short-term fund withdrawals" are coexisting. If marginal buying is long-term institutional funds, a pullback may be a structural buying point. If marginal buying is mainly leveraged and short-term speculation, then the rebound may only be an opportunity to sell liquidity. In my personal opinion, the next Bitcoin, the true marginal buying, is likely not retail investors or "believers continue to shout orders", but three types of funds returning: ETF/traditional asset management funds, short covering and trend funds, and Strategy/corporate treasury funds. Now that BTC has hit around 60000, if we can stop the decline here, we usually need to see three signals: ETF outflows have significantly decreased; BTC no longer falls below 59000-60000 and quickly falls; A rebound can help us stand back at 63000-65000 yuan instead of being smashed at the first rebound. three ️⃣ Is this decline a 'leverage cleaning' or a 'long-term distribution'? If only short-term leverage is cleared, it usually results in contract liquidation, short-term holders losing money, and emotional panic, but long-term holders do not sell on a large scale. If it is a long-term distribution, it is usually seen that long-term holders continue to sell coins, ETFs continue to flow out, the rebound is weak, and every rise is suppressed by trapped stocks and institutional redemptions. four ️⃣ Can the scarcity narrative of Bitcoin still outweigh the opportunity cost? Many people talk about BTC, only discussing "21 million coins", "halving", and "long-term scarcity". These are certainly important, but not enough. Scarcity itself does not automatically lead to an increase. An increase requires the simultaneous existence of three conditions: Scarce supply+sustained demand+sufficiently loose or willing to take risks in the funding environment. The current question is: can the scarcity narrative of BTC continue to attract new capital while US bond yields remain attractive, AI/tech stocks absorb large amounts of funds, and ETFs experience periodic outflows? Reuters recently mentioned that funds are shifting from BTC to more popular areas such as AI, semiconductors, and large IPOs, putting significant pressure on Bitcoin's performance since 2026. five ️⃣ If your Bitcoin judgment is wrong, what conditions do you use to admit your mistake? This is the issue that most affects investment results. I need to constantly ask myself, when will I admit my BTC judgment stage error? For example: BTC has fallen below the critical cost zone and has not recovered for a long time? Has the ETF experienced significant outflows for several consecutive weeks? Will long-term holders continue to distribute? Macro interest rates continue to rise, risk assets killing valuations together? Can't the transactions and capital flow keep up during the rebound? Is the market narrative shifting from 'institutional allocation of BTC' to 'BTC no longer has excess returns'? Under what conditions do I increase my position from 'predicting prices' to' managing positions'? Under what conditions does it not move? Under what conditions can risk be reduced? Under what conditions does the trend change? six ️⃣ What I think is a possible price range My personal opinion would be as follows: Short term stop position: 58000-62000 (already reached) More high-quality bottom area: 52000-56000. Extreme panic opportunity zone: 45000 to 48000. If the outflow of ETFs significantly decreases in mid to late June, BTC may complete its first round of decline around 60000. If ETFs continue to flow out and the macro continues to suppress, the true bottom is more likely to be postponed to July September, and the price may drop to the middle or even high range of 50000 yuan. Be patient, wait, keep thinking, keep sharp!