Macro BTC Cycle Positioning This Week: Downtrend Phase. 1. Price momentum is down this week, but valuation has already entered the undervalued zone. BTC dropped to around $61,486 this week, down -16.9% in a single week, breaking below the February low and the miners' electricity cost line. At the same time, the Fear & Greed Index fell to 12, entering Extreme Fear. MVRV dropped to 1.19. This shows that the market is already very fearful, and valuations are no longer expensive. 2. The capital pipeline hasn’t been repaired yet. BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of approximately $3.4 billion this week, marking the largest weekly outflow since launch, with outflows continuing for 13 consecutive trading days. Global liquidity is actually marginally easing: - DXY is pulling back; - Stablecoin market cap has risen to $314.2 billion; - The Fed’s balance sheet has also slightly increased. The liquidity is still out there. But it hasn’t flowed into BTC. 3. This week’s structure Global liquidity isn’t deteriorating, valuations are already low, but ETF capital flows and market sentiment are still worsening. So the most important observation right now isn’t any single candlestick. It’s when ETFs will shift from outflows back to inflows. As long as the capital pipeline isn’t repaired, undervaluation only means it’s cheap—it doesn’t mean an immediate reversal. #BTC #Crypto #MarketAnalysis