There was a considerable amount of conversation with 168X this Wednesday about possible market risks and adjustments. Last night https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/2062912854983086556? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A also has reasons for the sharp decline from a personal perspective. On Wednesday, the topics related to risk and adjustment were distributed across several topics, and I have just sorted them out and reissued them: 1. I don't feel particularly good this week: when Huang Renxun said he wanted to develop an AI PC, funds flooded into the PC and CPU industry chains; He said he wanted to promote the AI Factory, but funds flooded into areas such as liquid cooling, high-voltage electricity, power distribution, and electricity; Yesterday he said that Marvel would be a trillion dollar company, and it rose 30% on the same day and is still rising today. Its original market value of $200 billion suddenly increased by $60 billion, which is actually a bit crazy. Any parabolic rise in assets is unsustainable and there will always be adjustments. 2. SpaceX's roadshow is about to go public, and some institutions that want to participate in SpaceX's IPO either have no cash on hand or have to cut some positions to make up cash for subscription. This is the core point. From a purely financial perspective, it may be a small adjustment in the short term. The real impact lies in its special unlocking rules, which are designed to allow more passive funds to undertake and hedge against future selling pressure. But the problem does exist: your scale is too large, your absolute value is also too large, and the amount of unlocking that will follow is also very large. Anthropic has already submitted its IPO documents, and OpenAI is expected to confirm this year. I think there is a high probability that adjustments may occur in the second half of the year due to funding issues. 3. The recent good market performance is due to strong fundamentals, which have overlooked macro factors: the Strait of Hormuz has been sealed off for over 100 days, oil prices are still in their 90s, and the US Iran talks have not yet been finalized. The May CPI will be released on June 13th next week, and the core will depend on the broad CPI and core CPI: the main inflation force in the previous two months was the rise in energy (oil prices, aviation fuel), which has not yet spread to the service industry; If both the broad and core CPI rise, it means that inflation is spreading from energy, and the market may panic. In addition, the expectation that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates will affect sentiment. (No further discussion on non farm farming, Thursday morning https://(x.com))/qinbafrank/status/2062342524702982349? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A, we talked about it 4. The current market support for the entire logic is that the commercialization of AI has entered a turning point and is growing rapidly. Only with rapid commercial growth can the massive capital expenditure appear reasonable, and at the same time, the entire AI computing power industry chain upstream and downstream can continue to benefit. So the key is to see if the growth rate of AI commercialization has slowed down. So from a personal perspective: 1) If it's just the financial aspect or the May CPI significantly exceeding expectations, it should bring about a small-scale adjustment of the overall market, because the fundamentals are not a problem; 2) If combined with sustained inflation, the listing of the three major giants, and geopolitical uncertainty, it may be a small to moderate adjustment. But as long as the revenue growth of big model manufacturers and big technology cloud businesses does not slow down, it will not be the kind of collapse in 2000. 3) The adjustment of the US stock market is not dragging downwards, but once a reversal is confirmed, it does not turn back and rises quickly; 4) Only when the fundamentals (AI commercialization growth rate) really have problems, do we need to wait for more reversal signals after adjustment. All logic needs to be reset, not completely starting over, but a moderate reset. Then everyone will go back and wait: you need to provide new evidence to prove that it has returned to rapid growth, and its scale and growth rate have exceeded expectations before confidence can return. And regarding the adjustment framework and underlying logic of the overall market, especially the Nasdaq's large, medium, and small levels, the framework of individual stock valuation, performance, and logic has also been discussed in detail in the conversation.