律动BlockBeats|Jun 06, 2026 03:32
[Analyst: Market Digesting Panic, On-Chain Metrics Indicate Bitcoin Exhibits Bottoming Structure]
BlockBeats News, June 6 – On-chain analyst Murphy posted an article stating that BTC fell below the $60,000 psychological level yesterday, but market loss and sentiment indicators did not deteriorate in tandem. Currently, the 3-day moving average of Adjusted Realized Loss (EARL) is $1.13 billion, nearly halved compared to the value on February 5. He believes this does not mean BTC will not continue to decline, but the fact that EARL has not risen further despite lower prices represents a "bottoming expectation" standard structure.
If EARL represents the degree of market panic, STH-RUL (Short-Term Holder Relative Unrealized Loss) reflects the psychological pressure endured by new investors. During the decline after entering a bear market, short-term holders typically experience a severe psychological stress limit, with STH-RUL breaking above +5 standard deviations, corresponding to a systemic crisis. Afterward, even if prices drop further, STH-RUL often does not exceed the previous peak again, as tokens have already changed hands in high-loss zones, new buyers have lower costs, and market pressure is being digested.
Murphy believes that EARL and STH-RUL currently provide consistent signals, indicating that market panic is being digested rather than spreading. While prices are hitting new lows, loss indicators are not simultaneously reaching new highs. This is not a sufficient condition for a bottom, but historically, true bottoms almost always exhibit this characteristic. Bottom formation is a process of repeated stress and digestion until tokens change hands during panic, new buyers' costs are sufficiently low, and prices gradually lose the momentum to continue declining. [Original Link]
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