Murphy|Jun 06, 2026 03:25
Yesterday, BTC broke through the $60000 integer mark, and both the intraday low and closing price were lower than on February 5th this year. This also provides us with a good perspective for observing market sentiment and behavioral dynamics.
The most important, of course, is the realized loss after entity adjustment (EARL), with a 3-day average of $1.13 billion, which is almost half less than the value on February 5th.
Although this does not mean that there will be no further decline in the future, based on this, the price is lower but the EARL is not higher, which is a standard structure with "bottom expectations".
Meanwhile, we also see in Figure 1 that the peak values of 1/2/3 of the current cycle are lower than those of the previous cycle; During extreme panic, the market appears relatively more mature.
If EARL represents the level of panic, then STH-RUL (short-term holders' relative unrealized losses) represents the psychological pressure experienced by new investors. After all, they are the most sensitive to fluctuations and have the greatest impact on short-term price changes.
This is a normalization metric. The reason why it is' relative 'reflects the proportion of' loss pressure relative to market size ', rather than the absolute amount of loss.
From Figure 2, it can be seen that in the decline after entering the bear market, STH will experience a severe psychological limit pressure, and STH-RUL will instantly break through the range of+5 standard deviations, which is a systemic crisis.
Afterwards, even if the price is lower, STH-RUL will not surpass the previous peak again. Because the chips have completed a turnover in the high loss range, the cost for new buyers is lower, and market pressure is being digested.
So, in the process of bottoming out at the tail, we use+2 standard deviations as the measurement standard. When STH-RUL exceeds this line, it means entering the stage limit range.
From both dimensions, EARL and STH-RUL provide consistent signals: panic is being digested rather than spreading.
The price has hit a new low, but the losses have not followed suit - this has never been a sufficient condition for bottoming out in history, but almost every true bottoming out has this characteristic.
Bottom building is a process of repeated pressure and digestion, where chips change hands in panic until the cost of new buyers is low enough, and the price loses its motivation to continue falling.
What we see now is the outline of this process.
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