Phyrex
Phyrex|Jun 05, 2026 21:20
Noticed that many friends don’t quite understand—everyone’s saying NFP is bearish, but actually, the NFP data itself isn’t bearish. This time, the NFP data is pretty solid: the unemployment rate didn’t rise, and the number of jobs added exceeded expectations. These are all positive for the economy. So why did the market drop after the NFP release? It’s because the NFP data was *too* good, which dampened the Fed’s rate-cut expectations. With such strong employment data, the Fed is unlikely to increase rate-cut expectations. On the contrary, with solid labor data, the Fed can hold out longer or even consider rate hikes if inflation rises. Right now, the main culprit is the inflation expectations driven by the Hormuz Strait situation. If this issue gets resolved, the inflation expectations caused by rising oil prices will dissipate. So, the current focus is still on WTI prices—continue shorting WTI.
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