[Fitch: Once the Strait of Hormuz Reopens, the Oil Market Will Return to Oversupply] Golden Finance reports that on June 6, Fitch stated in a new report that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused a logistical supply shock but did not alter market trends. It is expected that rapid recovery of production in the region, strong supply growth from non-OPEC countries, and potentially more aggressive OPEC policies will lead to an oversupply situation again in Q4 2026, driving oil prices downward once the strait reopens. Based on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen around late July (implying an actual closure period of five months), our baseline expectation is that the average Brent crude oil price in 2026 will be $87 per barrel. There remains significant uncertainty regarding the exact timing of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, and the risks to oil prices are binary. The current price increase reflects a temporary logistical supply shock rather than a long-term loss of production capacity. We anticipate the strait will reopen around late July and expect Brent crude oil prices to drop significantly from their March-to-July highs.