How do you view the sharp decline in the US stock market in the past two days? Actually, several factors work together. 1. I had a chat on Space 168X on Wednesday, and the first half of this week gave me a bad feeling. Old Huang was turning stones into gold, and funds were crazily chasing after him. Actually, it was a bit crazy. Any parabolic rise in assets is unsustainable and there will always be adjustments. Then on Wednesday night, the trend of the US stock market had already shown signs of adjustment What is the essence of fanaticism? Many companies have not received orders yet, and their stock prices have risen first. Many concepts have not yet been included in the financial report, and the valuation has already gone up. The industry trend is not bad, but the trading pace has already broken. If there are too many optimistic expectations overdrawn in the short term, there will be funds to take profits, and at the same time, funds that have not yet entered the car will not dare to enter again. At this point, adjustments will come unexpectedly, and a downward kill is a highly probable event. 2. Thursday morning here: https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/2062342524702982349? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A: SpaceX has started its roadshow, and during the next two weeks of the roadshow, the effects of capital rotation and extraction will be evident in advance, rather than waiting until the day of IPO. It was even mentioned on Monday of this week 3. Yesterday morning, we talked about the impact of the situation in Iran. The two sides have not yet made it clear: the Iranian side has announced a four stage plan for negotiations with the United States, but Trump has not yet accepted and said at the same time that "a more moderate fire is a ceasefire", which will also make the market worried about rising. The May non farm data released on Friday and the May inflation data released on the 10th of next Wednesday naturally also have risk aversion actions. 4. Then at 8:30 pm tonight, the non farm payroll unemployment rate data for May in the United States was released, and the significantly higher than expected increase in non farm employment will also shock the market. The expectation of interest rate hikes within the year has been getting lower and lower, and with the strong labor market, the expectation of interest rate hikes has risen. Or was it yesterday here https://(x.com)/qinbufark/status/2062342524702982349? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A mentioned that Friday's labor force data should ideally meet or be slightly lower than expected in terms of newly added employment. However, if the newly added employment significantly exceeds expectations, the natural market will face further pressure. 5. Of course, the key to testing the market is the US May CPI data to be released on the evening of June 10th next Wednesday. Just a strong non farm payroll is not enough to make the Federal Reserve raise interest rates. The current inflation trend is the key factor affecting the Federal Reserve's policy path. This is the more crucial point, and the most important thing for next Wednesday's CPI data is whether energy inflation has already transmitted to the service industry, mainly depending on the year-on-year and month on month trend of the core CPI. So the core of this adjustment is that there has been too much short-term increase, the market is too sluggish and fanatical, and the parabolic rise is already unsustainable. Then there was immediately a roadshow for a giant IPO. And the natural risk aversion of the market before the two major data points of labor and inflation. Of course, this year's labor force data exceeding expectations is also further pressure on the market. It is difficult to completely reverse in the short term, and patience is needed until these macro events are completely resolved: Inflation data for next Wednesday; Next Friday, SpaceX will officially go public, and a portion of the subscription lock up funds may be released; Following closely behind are the interest rate meetings of the Bank of Japan on the 16th and the Federal Reserve on the 18th.