BitUnix analyst: Market focus on non farm validation, but real risk comes from the imbalance between AI valuation and liquidity According to BlockBeats, on June 5th, although the situation in the Middle East entered the final stage of US Iran negotiations, there is still a considerable distance to go before the real risks are lifted. Whether it is the negotiations for the unfreezing of Iranian funds, the ceasefire conditions in Lebanon, or the struggle between Israel and Hezbollah, they are still in the negotiation stage rather than a comprehensive cooling down. Therefore, geopolitical risks have not disappeared, but the market's short-term attention has temporarily shifted to tonight's upcoming US non farm payroll report and unemployment rate data. At present, the US economy is showing quite contradictory signals. On the one hand, the total number of layoffs by companies in May reached the highest level since the same period in 2020, and the number of initial jobless claims also rose to a new high since February, indicating that some companies are becoming more conservative about future demand; On the other hand, the market expects non farm payroll to maintain positive growth in May, and the unemployment rate may also remain stable at 4.3%. This state of labor market cooling but not yet significantly deteriorating also explains why San Francisco Fed President Daly emphasized that the Fed is currently unable to commit to rate cuts or rule out the possibility of further tightening policies. However, if we take a broader perspective on the overall asset market, the real issue that deserves attention at present is not interest rates, but the high concentration of global funds on the narrative of AI growth. From SpaceX launching its IPO roadshow, to Anthropic publicly calling for a halt to cutting-edge AI research and development, to global technology ETFs continuing to attract capital inflows, all indicate that market expectations for the future productivity revolution of AI are still heating up. But at the same time, a phenomenon worthy of vigilance is emerging. According to the current data, the total market value of US stocks is about 75 to 76 trillion dollars, while the US M2 money supply is about 22.8 trillion dollars. The ratio of the two has reached 316%, which is not only far higher than about 150% before the 2008 financial tsunami, but also higher than the level of about 300% at the peak of the Internet foam in 2000. This means that the expansion rate of stock market value has far exceeded the growth rate of real money supply. More importantly, this round of market value expansion is highly concentrated in a few large technology companies. AI benefiting companies such as NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon continue to boost their index performance, forming a typical capital concentration effect. Due to the fact that the increase in stock market value does not require equal cash inflows, the growth rate of market book wealth is much higher than the expansion rate of actual liquidity. Once large institutions begin to engage in profit taking behavior in the market, price fluctuations in a high valuation environment may be further amplified. From a global comparison perspective, the ratio of US market value to money supply is also at an extreme position. Japan accounts for about 102%, while major European markets mostly range from 50% to 90%, and the United States exceeds 300%. This reflects the unprecedented concentration of global capital towards the US technology and AI industries, and has also pushed market expectations for future growth to historic highs. Therefore, the importance of tonight's non farm payroll data lies not only in determining the next policy direction of the Federal Reserve, but also in verifying whether the core premise of the current market's willingness to give high valuations still holds true. If employment remains resilient, the market may continue to accept an environment of high valuations and high interest rates; But if economic data begins to weaken and corporate profit growth cannot keep up with the vision depicted by AI investment, the risk facing the market in the future will no longer be a lack of liquidity, but an excessive reliance on the valuation pressure accumulated by a few growth narratives. For the cryptocurrency market, this is also a signal worth paying attention to. As global funds continue to concentrate on AI and large tech stocks, cryptocurrency assets still need to compete with these high growth assets for fund allocation in the short term. But if there are doubts about the reasonableness of US stock valuations in the future market, the speed of capital rotation and risk repricing may be much faster than the market currently expects.