Preview: The First Non-Farm Payroll Report of the 'Wolsh Era' to Be Released Tonight at 20:30

BlockBeats News, June 5 — The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May non-farm payroll data tonight at 20:30. The market generally expects that the U.S. added approximately 85,000 non-farm jobs in May, significantly lower than the average of around 150,000 over the previous two months. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%. Multiple institutions have adopted more conservative forecasts for this non-farm payroll report. Goldman Sachs predicts only 60,000 new jobs in May, citing weakening trends in its high-frequency employment indicators. Ernst & Young forecasts 50,000 new jobs and believes there is slight upward pressure on the unemployment rate. Vanguard Chief Economist Adam Schickling estimates just 20,000 new jobs, attributing the unusually warm and dry weather earlier this year (January to April) as a factor that boosted employment figures during that period, which may partially reverse in May. From a monetary policy perspective, if the non-farm payroll data aligns broadly with expectations, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to maintain its current stance during the June 16–17 meeting. Ernst & Young Chief Economist Gregory Daco stated that the combination of a stable labor market and persistently high inflation could increase the likelihood of the Fed issuing a more hawkish dual-policy statement at the next meeting. Policymakers may emphasize that if inflation proves more persistent, rate hikes remain a viable option.