India's oil product exports are collapsing as the Iran War forces refiners to keep fuel at home: India's oil product exports dropped -31% YoY in May, to 878,000 barrels per day, the lowest since October 2022. This also marks the 3rd consecutive monthly decline, totaling ~270,000 barrels. By comparison, the 2025 high was ~1,500,000 barrels per day in September, or +70% larger. This comes as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely restricted crude and fuel flows to India, prompting refiners to redirect output toward domestic supply rather than overseas markets. Indian refiners have also shifted production toward LPG at the expense of other exportable fuels, further weighing on overall outbound shipments. Before the Iran War, the country imported ~90% of its LPG supply from the Middle East, making domestic production a strategic necessity once Hormuz flows were disrupted. Domestic energy security is now a top priority in India.(The Kobeissi Letter)