HTX DeepThink: US stock AI mainline deviates from cryptocurrency assets, leading to a split in market risk appetite According to TechFlow, on June 3rd, Chloe (@ Chloe Talk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that the core contradiction in the current cryptocurrency market is not whether the rise of the US stock market can drive cryptocurrency, but rather whether there is a clear risk preference split in the market. The US stock market, especially the AI chain, remains strong, with funds continuing to chase AI computing power, servers, chips, and infrastructure narratives; But BTC and ETH are clearly under pressure, indicating that the current situation is not a comprehensive risk on, but rather a concentration of funds flowing towards AI assets with stronger certainty in the US stock market, while withdrawing from high volatility and high liquidity cryptocurrency assets. From the perspective of the Federal Reserve system reform that Warsh is preparing to promote, the pressure faced by the cryptocurrency market is more inclined towards "liquidity expectation contraction" rather than simply interest rate pressure. Warsh hopes to shift the Federal Reserve's reliance on the balance sheet to regulate the market back to the traditional framework centered around interest rates through balance sheet reduction, which means the market needs to reprice the liquidity premium brought about by QE over the past decade. The valuation of BTC, ETH, and altcoins largely relies on the liquidity of the US dollar, leverage environment, and risk appetite expansion. Once the market believes that the Federal Reserve will be more aggressive in reducing its balance sheet, cryptocurrency assets can easily switch from "rate cut trading" to "balance sheet reduction trading". The current strength of the US stock market cannot fully hedge this risk: the rise in the US stock market is more due to AI profit expectations and industry capital expenditures, rather than the expansion of broad US dollar liquidity. In other words, the rise in US stocks is due to AI fundamentals, while the decline in cryptocurrency is due to liquidity expectations. The divergence between "new highs in US stocks and a decline in cryptocurrency" is not contradictory. In the short term, the key range for BTC is around $67000-69000. If it can regain $70000, the market may see it as a technical rebound after short-term deleveraging; If it falls below $67000 and increases in volume, it may further test $65000 below. After ETH falls below $2000, the risk appetite for altcoins will be weaker, and funds are more likely to stay in BTC, stablecoins, or US stock AI mainlines rather than spreading to high FDV altcoins. Overall, the cryptocurrency market is weak and volatile, with core variables being US bond yields, ETF fund flows, and the Federal Reserve's stance on the pace of balance sheet tightening. If the yield falls, the US dollar weakens, and ETF funds flow back, BTC may experience a defensive rebound; If the yield rises again and the expectation of shrinking the balance sheet heats up, the cryptocurrency market will still be under pressure. The current environment is closer to a 'defensive rebound' rather than the start of a new bull market. BTC is relatively stronger than ETH, and ETH is relatively stronger than most knockoffs. High FDV and low-income projects will face more significant liquidity discounts. Note: The content is not investment advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment product.